Wednesday, January 9, 2008


In the aftermath of the New Hampshire Primary, the media now tilts toward the two winners: Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican John McCain. According to nearly all the political commentators, they are now the front runners. This is absolutely wrong! The tornado of spins have left many casual news browsers confused. Just last Saturday many labeled Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee the chosen ones.

Folks, it is way too early, and for someone who follows this process, let me dispel some myths in have both seen, heard and read about the 2008 Presidential Campaign.

Myth #1 The Hillary Clinton Comeback.
Senator Clinton's victory in the New Hampshire's Democratic Primary was not a comeback! In truth, it was expected. At least that was the case before Christmas, where some polls had Mr. Clinton with a double-digit lead. The Obama surge may have temporary knocked her down to second, however, make no mistake about it, there is no political machine better than Clinton Incorporated. Experienced and well funded, they can create ways no other candidate can match in getting out the vote. Hillary always had an advantage, she was never in serious trouble.

Myth #2 Hillary's Crying Moment Was Genuine.
I do not think so! Remember this is Clinton Inc! They will stop at almost nothing to gain votes.
In the Ophra World of emotions over reason, Hillary went for broke staging her 'coming to tears' fiasco, knowing that she will gain favor with the voters. It worked!

Myth #3 John McCain Will Be The GOP Nominee.
John McCain cannot win the Republican Nomination simply because the conservative base of the party will never elect him. No further explanation needed.

Myth#4 Mitt Romney Must Win In Michigan.
Romney finished second in both Iowa and New Hampshire! The pundits are considering him in to be in trouble at this early stage, and that is absurd, especially after one major caucus and the first primary. He leads in the most important category, the delegate count. He is the true front runner at this point in time!

Myth #5 Iowa & New Hampshire Reflect Most of the Nation's Electorate.
George Bush(1980,) Tom Harkin and Dick Gephardt are previous winners in Iowa. Pat Buchanan, Paul Tsongas and Gary Hart all won the New Hampshire Primary. In all these cases, the winner did not go on to win their party's nomination. In addition, Both states have a larger than average Democratic/Liberal base than the rest of the nation, and are not considered Conservative strongholds by any means.

Myth #6 Rudy Giuliani's Chances Are Slim to None.
Giuliani did not actively compete in Iowa and New Hampshire, so he was virtually ignored.
His approach focuses on the delegate rich Super Tuesday Primaries, where just over 1000 delegates will be decided in 21 states. Basically, a "why waste time in small states when I can focus on bigger prizes" strategy may work for Giuliani, since he still leads in the national poles, and most of those prizes are much closer to his base. His home state of New York, California, and Illinois are among the big states included in the February 5 primaries.

Here is the the current delegate count as of January 9, 2008:

Democrats: Obama 25, Clinton 24, Edwards 18.

Republicans: Romney 24, Huckabee 18, McCain 10.

So how can the media be so sure about Clinton's and McCain's chances to face off in November, as some of the outlets have all but projected? Only three states have weighed in. (Wyoming picked their delegates this past week, too.) There is no way they can! Part of the fun of being a political junkie is watching all the pundits spin. They are wrong more often than right, and Thursday night's biggest loser was the media.

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