Saturday, November 24, 2007


The question appears easy: Can Hillary win a red state and take the 2008 Presidential Election? As it stands now, assuming that the 2004 Presidential Electoral Map remains the same, Mrs.Clinton has all 19 blue states (plus DC) John Kerry won. Geographically, that is Hawaii, the Pacific Coast, the four states that border Lake Superior and Lake Michigan, plus all the states north of, and including, Maryland. The rest is republican red state America.

In order to win, the Senator from New York would only need to find 18 more electoral votes. That could be done in one swing with Ohio or Florida changing from blue to red.

Ohio seems the likely battleground, where George Bush won the state by only 2.11 percent. New Mexico, Iowa and Nevada also went republican by the slimmest of margins. Those states combined would add another 17 votes to the Democratic total.

A Hillary Clinton victory seems doable…or does it?

All of this assumes that Mrs. Clinton can hold all of her blue states. The GOP nominee is likely to be Rudy Guiliani or Mitt Romney, so she is in some trouble. These two republicans would put into play nearly all the New England States, which, normally, are considered safe havens for the Democrats. New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, which Kerry won by small margins, may be lost. Romney, the former Governor of Massachusetts, certainly could change his state’s color to red, and Former New York City Mayor Guiliani would put his home state up for grabs. A Democrat cannot win the presidency without a blue New York, a fact that Clinton and her party may face in 2008. The democratic nominee would have to make up those losses elsewhere, and must keep the dangerous Great Lake states, like Wisconsin, which barely went to Kerry (0.38%), and Michigan (Kerry's margin of victory was less than four percent) from going red.

In my view, the 2008 red and blue map just does not add up for Hillary Clinton. With the possible exceptions of New Mexico, Colorado, Iowa and Florida, she will find it difficult to win a state from the Rocky Mountains, across the plains, to the south. That gives the Republicans an enormous head start. Depending on her opposition, her potential losses in New England and the Great Lakes appear to outweigh her expected gains. With all of these numbers, it appears likely Hillary Clinton will lose.

Obviously, the election is months away and anything can happen. But make no mistake overconfident Republicans, the New York Senator certainly can win next November, because the best thing going for her is the mainstream media in her corner rooting: "Go Hillary!"

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